arXiv:2607.19382v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning models have shown strong potential for time series forecasting, yet their deployment in real-world environmental monitoring remains challenging due to non-stationary dynamics and limited explainability. In this work, we investigate explainability as a central tool for understanding continual learning in adaptive time series forecasting, with Experience Replay strategies. We study neural forecasting architectures such as PatchMixer, PatchTST and DLinear, augmented with attention-based sampling mechanisms to support model adaptation over time. Explainability is leveraged through attention rollout and gradient-based attribution methods (Grad-CAM) to analyze both predictive behavior and sampling strategies within a continual learning framework. Experiments conducted on real-world piezometric time series exhibiting heterogeneous patterns and regime shifts show that analyzing model and sampling behaviors provides valuable insights...