Dashboard
Signal #153197POSITIVE

Distribird: Literature-Informed Prior Distribution Design for Bayesian Model Calibration

100

arXiv:2608.11210v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian calibration of process-based models requires a prior distribution for each model parameter. Despite decades of methodological work, researchers almost always fall back on uniform priors. The main reason is that building informative priors from scientific literature is slow and needs both domain and statistical expertise. We present \textbf{Distribird}, an agentic web application that automates this process. Given a parameter name, physical description, and domain context, Distribird deploys a multi-agent pipeline that searches the literature, extracts and weights reported values by domain relevance, and fits a probability distribution via AIC model selection. When no literature is available, the system falls back to sensible uninformative alternatives, and clearly reports both the evidence behind and the confidence level of every prior it produces. It is designed for the problems where the models have physically interpretable par...

arXiv AI Latestabout 4 hours ago
Read Full Article

Explore with AI-Powered Tools

View All Signals

Explore more AI intelligence

Want to discover more AI signals like this?

Explore Steek
Distribird: Literature-Informed Prior Distribution Design for Bayesian Model Calibration | Steek AI Signal | Steek