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Sensitivity Analysis of Decision Rules in an Agent-Based Agro-Ecological Model

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arXiv:2610.22420v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agent-based models are well-suited for modelling agro-ecological systems for decision-making, yet turning their simulations into actionable insight requires identifying which decisions actually drive the behaviours. In such a context, sensitivity analysis stumbles upon a structural feature of many complex systems: the parameters are not a flat vector but a decision tree in which many parameters appear only when a higher-level choice activates them. Classical global sensitivity analysis presupposes independent inputs over a fixed Cartesian product and is ill-posed on such a branched space and biased by construction. We instead treat the structure of the decisions as a first-class modelling object. Using advanced surrogate modelling techniques, we encode the crop-management itinerary of the high-resolution agro-ecological modelling platform MAELIA as a hierarchical design space featuring both categorical and numerical variables. We propose ...

arXiv AI Latestabout 2 hours ago
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Sensitivity Analysis of Decision Rules in an Agent-Based Agro-Ecological Model | Steek AI Signal | Steek