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Bayesian Distribution System State Estimation with Flow Matching

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arXiv:2610.40728v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medium-voltage feeders have few real-time measurements, so distribution system state estimation (DSSE) rests on pseudo-measurements of the secondary substations, a prior in Bayesian terms. Weighted least squares keeps the power flow exact but reduces this prior to a mean and variance, while supervised deep learning estimators also learn the power flow and are tied to one measurement set. We propose PoSE (posterior sampling for state estimation), which keeps the Bayesian structure of DSSE and learns only what the distribution system operator does not know, namely the distribution of substation injections, modelled by a neural network trained with flow matching on historical data. The power flow equations, grid topology and measurements enter only at sampling, through a noise-aware Kalman-type correction. The neural network therefore never approximates the power flow, but every posterior sample is a physically consistent operating point, an...

arXiv ML Latestabout 20 hours ago
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Bayesian Distribution System State Estimation with Flow Matching | Steek AI Signal | Steek